America’s controversial relationship with Saudi Arabia was thrust into the spotlight once again in the wake of Monday night’s CNN report that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, “have used the US-manufactured weapons as a form of currency to buy the loyalties of militias or tribes,” in Yemen, many of which are affiliated with Al Qaeda. CNN found that U.S.-made weapons have become widely available through the growing black-market arms trade and that American arms have even fallen into the hands of Iranian-supported Houthi rebels. If CNN’s report is accurate, then Saudi Arabia and the UAE have violated the terms of their arms agreements with the United States, which prohibits the transfer of U.S. weapons to third-parties within Yemen.

This report naturally sparked outrage on Capitol Hill, where many members have already soured on the U.S.-Saudi relationship in the wake of Saudi involvement in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. On Wednesday, House Democrats approved H.J.Res.37 , a bill that invokes the War Powers Resolution to end American participation in Yemen’s civil war. The House is expected to approve this resolution, while the Senate approved a similar proposal last December and could very well do so again.  

With Congress finally poised to consider the merits of America’s military involvement in Yemen, the decision of its ostensible allies to transfer American-made weapons to its enemies should be viewed as the last straw. The Saudi-led and U.S.-backed military campaign in support of beleaguered Yemeni president Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi has failed to materially improve the conditions on the ground and has instead contributed to what the UN labeled the world’s most dire humanitarian crisis . America should end its support for the coalition and condition further arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the UAE on both countries ceasing their offensive military operations in Yemen and aggressively pursuing a negotiated peace settlement between the warring parties.

Saudi Arabia entered the Yemen conflict in March of 2015 driven by its desire to roll-back the growing influence of the Houthis (a Zaydi Shia rebel faction supported by the Iranians) and prevent Tehran from establishing a foothold in Yemen. The United States, attempting to solidify its relationship with the Saudis in preparation for its then-pending nuclear deal with Iran, began offering intelligence sharing, targeting assistance for munitions, and, until recently, midair refueling for Saudi warplanes. America has also conducted its own air strikes and special forces operations against terrorist groups operating inside Yemen. Saudi Arabia initially labeled its intervention efforts as “Operation Decisive Storm,” betraying confidence in its ability to quickly dispatch of anti-government forces.

Unfortunately, the Saudi coalition’s entry into the conflict proved anything but decisive. Between January 2016 and November 2018, the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) Project recorded 60,223 conflict-related fatalities, a number over six times larger than the United Nations’ original estimate. The violence also sparked a nation-wide famine. Save the Children estimates that eighty-five thousand children have died of starvation, while the UN warns of a nearly unfathomable fourteen million Yemenis who exist on the brink of starvation.

The Saudi coalition, while far from the only cause of violence, has been a leading driver of the mounting civilian casualties. The aforementioned ACLED study found that Saudi Arabia and its allies were responsible for 4,614 civilian deaths since 2016 (over four times as many casualties as the 1,027 attributed to the Houthis and their allies), while the Yemen Data Project notes that a substantial number of Saudi air strikes are directed at nonmilitary targets. The Saudi military is responsible for egregious errors such as bombing a funeral that it mistook for a rebel gathering, and its targeting of agricultural infrastructure and lengthy blockade of Yemeni ports greatly contributed to the creeping famine.

Ironically, Saudi Arabia’s involvement in the conflict seems to be have strengthened the positions of the forces it sought to oppose. At an event hosted by the Center for the National Interest last December, Daniel Byman of the Brookings Institute argued that while Iran offered limited support to the Houthis during the early stages of the conflict, the ties between the two Shia forces have deepened as a result of Saudi intervention, strengthening Iran’s position on the Arabian Peninsula. Furthermore, in addition to benefiting from increased access to American-made weaponry, terror groups like Al Qaeda have capitalized on the chaos brought about by the near-collapse of the Yemeni state and solidified their foothold in the war-torn country. The longer the conflict rages and the more American-made bombs are dropped on civilians, the easier it becomes for groups like the Houthis and Al Qaeda to recruit new generations of militants into their ranks. The Saudi campaign has become self-defeating.

Ending American support for the coalition and threatening to suspend arms sales to its leading members would force Saudi Arabia and the UAE to end or dramatically reduce their military operations in Yemen. “The Saudi military is heavily dependent on U.S. weapons and support, and could not operate effectively without them,” according to a report from the Center for International Policy. Additionally, while the UAE’s offensive is largely ground-based and relies more on the daily cooperation of mercenaries than it does the United States, America can still influence Emirati policy due to the UAE’s strong reliance on American arms sales.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE depend broadly on American military support to guarantee their regional security and would be far more likely to begrudgingly comply with American demands than risk alienating their most important ally. If nothing else, ending weapon sales would drastically disrupt their ability to conduct military operations in the short-term while putting at risk the supply of weapons they need on to continue the war in the long-term.

AFP.