3/1/2012

We are hearing voices of apprehension that Islamist movements of varying degrees of tolerance and intolerance are coming to power through elections in the wake of the Arab Spring. The Islamist Ennahda has come to power in Tunisia, where the wave of Arab revolts began early last year. In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood leads the list of winners in ongoing parliamentary elections followed by the more hardline Salafists.

Islamists were the winners in November elections held in Morocco, where ripples of the Arab Spring were felt but the situation was brought under control by timely reforms announced by King Mohammed VI. There are continuing protests, but these are not expected to mean much.

No doubt that Islamists will come to the fore as and when elections are held in Yemen and Syria, whose regimes are fighting rebellions waged by pro-democracy activists, and Libya, where revolutionaries are in the throes of a transition to democracy after ousting a 42-year autocratic government.

That would also be the case in Algeria, where people’s demand for transparent democracy remains strong although this has not been translated into street protests. An Islamist party has quit Algeria’s governing coalition ahead of April legislative elections. Obviously, the party hopes to capitalise on the wave of Islamist victories in other Arab countries, although doubts remain how well it could do in elections after years inside the corridors of power.

Hamas, the Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood, could be expected to put up a good show when elections are held in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank in May this year. The group won 76 per cent of the vote in the 2007 legislative elections.

In Lebanon, Hizbollah is the dominant power although it has only 14 seats in the 128-strong parliament under its control. With support from powerful allies, including Christians, Hizbollah, whose armed wing is 20 times stronger than the country’s military, holds 18 portfolios in the 30-member cabinet.

The marked difference is that Hizbollah is Shiite whereas all other dominant Islamist movements elsewhere — except those in Shiite Iran — are Sunni.

There are several reasons for the surge of Islamists in the Arab World, starting with denial of social justice and the failure of all known political ideologies to address the basic concerns of the people, whether communism, capitalism, socialism or Baathism.

Undoubtedly, Islamist political movements are the strongest and best organised. They gained popularity through social welfare work, like running charities, schools, hospitals and cultural centres. In many countries, they are more effective than government in offering such services. And the authorities’ fears of such movements were one of the factors that built them and strengthened them.

Periodic crackdowns blunted political activity in most Arab countries, and people found the mosque to be the place to converge not only as a place of worship but also as a venue for the faithful to interact with each other. It was easy for Muslims to find a common bond in Islam, which is not an imported ideology but a strong-rooted faith that they were born into, and identify themselves as followers of common beliefs and convictions. These were the roots of political Islam led by movements like the Muslim Brotherhood, Ennahda, and Hamas etc.

Why should there be fears about the Islamists coming to power? After all, if the Islamists win elections, then it will be the choice of the people exercising their unquestionable democratic rights.

True that the liberals of countries like Tunisia, Morocco and Egypt worry that the Islamists will not only restrict their personal freedoms — particularly the rights of women — in matters like dressing and gender interaction in public but will also hamper the tourism industry by imposing restraints like banning alcohol and clothes favoured by foreign tourists among other things.

However, the Islamists are also concerned over public opinion and economic matters. The Ennahda party of Tunisia could not but be aware that imposing restrictions that affect the domestic tourism industry would lead to a major loss in revenues in an important sector that contributes a major chunk of national income. The new government in Tunisia has also said it is committed to creating constitutional guarantees for the rights of women.

The Islamists of Egypt and Morocco are also equally pragmatic and are wise to the reality that the rules of the old school are no longer at play.

Israel says it is worried that an Islamist government in post-rebellion Egypt could abrogate the 1978 Camp David peace treaty, the first between an Arab country and the Jewish state.

However, the Muslim Brotherhood, the dominant political group that is expected to lead the next government (if the ruling military council allows it to do so), has affirmed that it is committed to respecting all international agreements that the former regimes signed. The Salafists, who are unlikely to be represented in the next government despite a high number of parliament seats, say that they would renegotiate the terms of the Camp David document, but would not be in a position to do so. However, sitting in the opposition bench, they could be expected to make it a major political issue to taunt the Muslim Brotherhood.

Most Islamist leaders in the Arab World do not see the 1979 Iranian revolution that overthrew the monarchy as an Islamic revolution because of the particular features of the Shiite branch of Islam. They are also aware that the theocratic regime in Tehran has only managed to isolate the country through its policies and they would not want to repeat that experience by being international mavericks. And that is the best bet for the liberals to put their fears to rest.